Mukul Kumar's Blog

Blog Focus:

A data driven exploration of trends in the economy, technology, and society.  I believe we live in times of exponential, technology enabled structural change (see Kurzweil's predictions ). The straight-line forecasts based on a small number of recent data points will lead to ever more misleading predictions and decisions. We need to think systemically and holistically rather than get trapped in false mathematical precision.

Principal Contributor:

Mukul Kumar is Chief Economist at Palantir, LLC a consulting firm  focusing on the disruptive implications of technology and structural economic forces on corporate valuations. 

Prior to Palantir, Mukul launched and led a $30MM Technology Infrastructure Practice at CEB advising Global 1000 clients on strategy and management challenges. His clients included companies across a broad range of industries : Bristol Myers Squibb, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Rohm & Haas, Kelloggs, Fidelity, Allstate, etc. 

Mukul has 15 years of experience in strategy and technology consulting. He was an Engagement Manager with McKinsey & Co. working with Financial Services, Technology, and Not-for-Profit clients. He also consulted at The World Bank, Business France, and other public sector organizations.

Mukul has bachelor's degrees in Mathematics and Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University. He is on the board of several organizations, including the Washington Improv Theater in Washington, DC.

In Ignorance We Trust

Man-made systems are getting more complex -- from the products and services we consume to the financial, economic and social systems we inhabit.  Our desire for instant gratification is growing and reflects in our systems through more short-term focused competition.  

Our coping mechanism has been a state of blind trusting ignorance in the face of complexity. Worse yet, we appeal to the authority of the experts and the ease of the unifying black box metric and then diligently listen to the oracles and watch the ticker-tape of metrics in real time to feel on-top of the situtation.  

But improbable events perturb the system and suddenly our crutch of experts and metrics don't deliver.  The financial crisis of 2008 saw the failures of ratings agencies/research analysts (experts), VaR (risk metrics), and buy & hold (strategies).  The inability to be resilient to a shock to the system erodes our blind trust, and the final recognition of fraud in the system (Madoff, Satyam) drives the final nails into the coffin.   Having lost our crutch, our blind trust, we are finally forced to build an understanding of the system -- to force ourselves to put in the work to get the gratification!

My intent with this blog is to focus on synthesis; not just analysis of isolated problems but looking holistically across the system to understand the broader context and implications.  And to engage in discussions with you to collectively pierce this veil of collective (blissful) ignorance. My background is in finance, business, and technology but will explore interesting issues agnostic of their provenance.