2011: Whither Policy?

As we enter the season of prognostication the mood in US financial markets is bullish, the main street numbers (unemployment) remain bearish, and the US political establishment is decidedly undecided.  The central political comprise is an agreement to "kick the can down the road" -- with the responsibility squarely resting on the 2012 electorate. Unfortunately price signals -- arguably the most critical benefit of market economies -- have been severely compromised by the various "bailout" programs of the last couple years.

Will the Fed continue with its (almost) stated intent to manipulate interest rates, asset prices, etc?
Will the global financial regulators continue to bailout senior creditors at the cost of tax payors?
Will political bodies show any appetite for making choices and trade-offs on citizen services/entitlements, tax policy, etc to achieve some degree of sustainability in the medium term?

The bi-partisan Simpson and Bowles commission recommended policy measures that would require all of the above to be addressed -- and perhaps therefore have been largely ignored since their release. The central policy question now is a political one, more than an economic one. I look forward to seeing your thoughts on which direction US economic policy will take in 2011...

2010: The Economic Picture Book

David Leonhart of the NYT with 6 graphs summarizing 2010 for the US economy.

The Workforce of the Future

Some student teams in my course last semester presented HR strategies for the future. Its an area of active research and I'll be presenting on the topic in January.

One topic of special interest tends to be "What motivates Gen Y?"
1500 of them express a loud and clear opinion in the McKinsey survey from 2010 -- non-financial factors relating to identity, networks, and personal challenge. Look at the attribute rank to the right -- the financial attributes ranked in the lower half! And this after a couple years of recession with unemployment hitting recent graduates pretty hard. Will these preferences remain as Gen Y gains experience in the workforce?

2010: Higher Education News

There is significant disruption brewing in the education (particularly higher ed) sector with many technology enabled experiments establishing nascent scale. A mix of instructional technology, customer experience innovation, curriculum innovation, globalization of demand, and new financing are serving as catalysts in the education sector.  Will disruptions truly gain momentum in 2011 and hit the steep part of the S-curve? Or will inertia continue forward?

5 trend-makers in the education sector in 2010. 

#5. Wharton announces Free lifetime executive education for its graduates -- Actually a week every seven years, but that's a start! Its time we acknowledge the need for "life-long knowledge partnerships" and innovate to deliver an appropriate business model.

#4. Education Finance has been called (by Steve Eisman and others) the next sub-prime sector (similar fraud concerns).  2010 was the year "for-profit-colleges" came in conflict with their usage of government sponsored education loans.  The heat and light coming to this issue will hopefully bring the right focus and reform.  It's critical to continued progress in universal education.

#3. Short Executive Certificate Programs are combining logistical flexibility and academic rigor to create a different-in-kind experience for executives. Expect a proliferation of certificates, channels, and technologies.  My own personal favorite is the University of Maryland's miniMBA2.0 (disclosure below)

#2. Online Degree Experiences from High-Ranked Universities  are bringing technology enabled instruction, social learning, and a more engaged experience to students.  Business schools like IE (Spain), UNC (MBA@UNC) are pricing online degrees at par/premium to reflect the stronger value proposition.

#1. Open Courseware sites are achieving critical density. In the K-12 space Khan Academy has the near-complete high school math curriculum in a set of You-Tube videos.  MIT Open Courseware provides lectures, problems, exams, etc for a deep set of courses across a very wide range of disciplines.  I wish I had access to these during my MIT days, but now find them invaluable for my own teaching. There are many other great examples that should eventually allow for a "best-in-breed" curriculum for individual degrees.


Disclosure: I am affiliated with UMD and the miniMBA2.0. This is the start of an ongoing series of discussions on innovation in education -- I welcome your comments and critiques.

2010: The Financial Picture Book

A year that started with many bearish predictions (including mine) is ending with the bulls (and the politicians) firmly tossing the bears into the snow.  Loved this chart instantly -- simple time series, visual factoids across the chart, multiple years kept in perspective with inset, humorous story told across the graph!

via Phil Davis

Zoom Maps of American Demographics

The newest mapping tool from the NYT lets you explore demographics across America at any level of granularity -- pick a state, a city, a neighborhood. And being a resident of DC, the picture is fascinating, if not surprising. Click link to access tool.

via Nathan Hau

"Matthew Bloch, Shan Carter and Alan McLean apply their cartography skills to US Census data and let you explore a variety of demographics. It's like a demographic buffet. There are multiple maps across four topics: race and ethnicity, income, education, and housing and families"

End of Semester Humor!

via xkcd